A time series analysis of under-five mortality rates (A Case study of Mpilo Central Hospital)- in Zimbabwe
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The purpose of this research study is to analyze the nature of trend, seasonal patterns and to predict future values using the developed model of under-five mortality a case study of Mpilo Central Hospital. The researcher collected secondary data about under-five monthly death rates from 2000-2015 from the Information Records Department of Mpilo Central Hospital. The major causes of under-five mortality in the country included neonatal cause, HIV/AIDS, pneumonia, malaria and diarrhoea. A time series plot was done to visualize the under-five mortality which showed a trend and seasonal patterns. The under-five mortality data was tested for stationarity and found to be non-stationary this then led to transforming the data by applying the differencing method which then made the time series stationary. The integrated autoregressive moving average model was fitted into the time series data and validated to make future forecast values. The research study revealed a significant downward trend of under-five mortality. The seasonal peaks of under-five mortality were mainly on rainy and winter seasons. Finally, confidence intervals for future values were computed for twenty-four steps ahead.